As Europe moves through the midpoint of 2025, the political atmosphere in Brussels and across the 27 member states is one of profound tension and precarious balance. The grand pro-European coalition that has long steered the continent’s direction remains in power, but it is a shadow of its former, more confident self. Following the contentious European Parliament elections of 2024, a fragile center is grappling with the immense pressure exerted by a newly emboldened populist and hard-right flank. This dynamic is forcing uncomfortable compromises on cornerstone policies, challenging the bloc’s unity on defense, and creating a sense of strategic uncertainty watched closely by global partners from Washington to Southeast Asia.

The current political arithmetic of the European Parliament tells the story. While the traditional centrist groups—the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe—managed to cobble together a majority to secure a second term for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the victory was anything but decisive. The process was a bruising affair, requiring significant concessions and exposing deep fissures within the coalition. The real story of the 2024 election was the surge of right-wing nationalist groups like the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by figures such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group. Though not in formal power in Brussels, their increased seat count gives them a powerful platform to influence debate, water down legislation, and shape the political narrative back in their home capitals.

Nowhere is this pressure more evident than in the battle over the European Green Deal, once von der Leyen’s legacy-defining project. The ambitious climate package is now facing a significant backlash, framed by its opponents as a source of excessive bureaucracy and economic burden on farmers and industry. The EPP, von der Leyen’s own political family, has noticeably shifted its rhetoric to a more “pro-competitiveness” stance, calling for a “pragmatic pause” on new environmental regulations. This has created immense friction with their S&D and Green coalition partners, who accuse the center-right of capitulating to the populist narrative. Key pieces of legislation, such as stricter emissions standards and nature restoration laws, are either being delayed or significantly diluted. The ambitious 2035 phase-out of the internal combustion engine, while still officially on the books, is facing renewed political challenges from industrial powerhouses like Germany, where leaders like Chancellor Olaf Scholz are under pressure to protect the automotive industry.